Argentina's Chances in South Africa

By most accounts Argentina has the most formidable attacking force in the world. With Barcelona’s brilliant Messi, Inter’s poacher Diego Milito, Madrid’s top goal-scorer Higuain and City’s workhorse Tevez at the front. Even Spain’s combined Villa-Torres attacking force cannot compare to Argentina. Even with this goal-scoring potential, the Castrol rankings only give Argentina a 7.5% chance of bringing the trophy back to Buenos Aires this summer. How can it be that England has a 10.4% chance of winning, Spain has a 16.1% chance and Brazil has a 23.6% chance of winning according to the Castrol rankings? The answer most likely lies simply in the coach. England undoubtedly has one of the worst squads in years, but with veteran coach Fabio Capello at the helm, most believe that the team will be disciplined enough to successfully rely on their set pieces, air balls and boring futbol. Spain has the all-around best squad, and their success lies in the best midfield in the world. Brazil, like England, has a horrible squad. The difference between the two teams is that Brazil's coach chose the wrong players, while England doesn't have too many quality players to choose from. Also, Dunga’s creative-squandering strategy left out prodigies like Hernanes and Dagoberto, and skilled players like Ronaldinho. So the disparity must lie in the confidence of the coaching staff. Maradona showed a total lack of judgement by leaving out players that were on every observer’s lists, such as: Cambiasso, Zanetti and Lisandro Lopez. Aside from that, no one really believes that he will be able to unleash Messi’s inner-beast.

Let’s look at his starting XI:

                Higuain-Messi

Di Maria-Veron-Mascherano- Jonas G.

Heinze-Samuel-Demichelis-Otamendi

                    Romero

What he got right: Higuain and Messi are a great duo. Higuain is always dangerous with the ball. He can shoot from any position, he works hard, and can get inside the box. His passing is also underrated. Mascherano and Di Maria are great midfield choices. Di Maria is spectacular with the ball. And his awesome goal against Canada on the edge of the box shows his fantastic goal scoring abilities. Samuel and Demichelis are good options in the back four. Both have come off relatively good seasons, with Samuel now considered one of the best center backs in the world after his Champion’s League work. Romero is really the only viable choice for starting goalie. (Don’t we wish Fillol was still around!)

My starting XI: 
                                                      

                                             Higuain        Messi

                              Perotti    Lucho Gonzalez   Di Maria                     

                                                Mascherano

                               Ansaldi-Samuel-G.Milito-Zabaleta

                                                    Romero

I would have Messi come in from the right, while Higuain would be square in the middle. Perotti and Di Maria would be attacking down the flanks with Lucho controlling the strings from a position in between CM and AM. Mascherano would fetch the loose balls as DM. Ansaldi and Zabaleta add height and lateral defensive prowess. Samuel must start as CB, and I believe G. Milito is playing slightly better than Demichelis, and combines better with Messi. Romero stays. My forward subs would be: Tevez, D.Milito and Lisandro (perhaps Cavaneghi as well). Midfield subs: Maxi Rodriguez, Pastore, Cambiasso and Veron. Defensive subs: Demichelis, Garay, Burdisso and Otamendi. My sub keepers would be Andujar and Carrizo.

Another one of the issues with Maradona’s team is his choice of substitute players. Palermo, Garce and Blanco should not be on the team. Neither should the starters Heinze and Jonas.

Argentina should win all three group stage games. Nigeria may give the team some trouble. But the final of the Olympics should be a demonstration that Argentina can easily beat Nigeria. Korea and Greece shouldn’t give the team trouble. Within Group B Argentina will pass, and then I believe Nigeria or Greece will (this perhaps will be decided on goal differential). It will be a general disappointment if Argentina does not make even a semifinal appearance. Teams that will trouble Argentina: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Cameroon and Ivory Coast. Let’s wait and see!

Castrol Ranking Info: Argentina Profile , Castrol Homepage

Emotion drives Barçelona’s pursuit of Fàbregas

FC Barçelona made itself stronger with the acquisition of the consistently great David Villa. Villa is the perfect Barçelona man, skilled and focused on the pitch but humble off it. So why is FC Barçelona, almost universally regarded as the world’s strongest club, pursuing Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fàbregas with such fervor? Emotion. The desire to repatriate the boy from La Masia is overriding any reasoned discussion surrounding the move. It is unclear where Cesc would fit into the starting lineup for Barçelona, but at a price likely to eclipse 40 million Euros, anything short of a starting position would have onlookers blasting Barça as spendthrifts not seen since Florentino Pérez. With Xavi on the right and Iniesta on the left, Barça have a superior product. I read one article that suggested Cesc could fill Iniesta’s spot wihile Andrés would slide forward to the left wing. This diminishes Iniesta’s creative abilities, and while Cesc would naturally do considerably more ball recovery in the midfield, Iniesta’s natural rhythms would have to be adjusted with less space to roam. Xavi is 30 years old and will not forever be a maestro. But right now, he is irreplaceable as the world’s best passer. He should be a visionary for at least the next two years, after which diminishing speed may catch up to him. However, his guile and intelligence may keep him among the world’s elite for many years to come. Zidane was still regarded as superhuman after the age of 32. Football is a young man’s game, but it is hard to see Xavi falling completely into disrepair. Iniesta is 26 and was injured last year. One could argue that the acquisition of Cesc could take some pressure off of Iniesta, reducing his in-game responsibilities or even allowing him to exit the pitch for some rest. This, they say, would prolong his career and effectiveness. This argument is poor. So long as Iniesta is healthy, what coach in his right mind would bench him? I know that Guardiola continues to mindlessly allow the inadequate Sergio Busquets playing time, but the head man remains a genius and will not remove a healthy Iniesta from the lineup.
Cesc is a wonderful choice as the heir apparent of Xavi or Iniesta, but the time is not now. Barçelona needs reinforcements, particularly if Yaya Touré departs the defensive midfield. Javier Mascherano would be an excellent replacement, but even if Touré is sold, Mascherano would come at a significant monetary loss to Barçelona. The best move is to re-sign Touré and forget about Cesc until at least another year down the line. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”